Underdogs in Champions League History

The 2022/23 Champions League group stage is under way, with 32 teams from across the continent striving to qualify for the knockout rounds of Europe’s most prestigious competition.

Pre-tournament predictions for which 16 sides will make it through tend to be similar. Few expect the likes of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Manchester City or Paris Saint-Germain to slip up in their respective groups. Yet when most of the focus is dedicated to a handful of giant clubs, we risk overlooking potential underdogs.

Many teams have upset the odds in the Champions League down the years, reaching the latter stages of the competition or even winning the whole thing despite not being particularly fancied.

Here are eight of the biggest underdogs in Champions League history – we analyse what they did, how they did it and who might follow in their footsteps this season.

8. APOEL Nicosia 2011/12

APOEL were expected to suffer an early elimination from the Champions League in 2011/12, but the Cypriot side were determined to do more than just make up the numbers. The group stage draw was kind, but APOEL still sprung a major surprise by finishing top ahead of Zenit Saint Petersburg, Porto and Shakhtar Donetsk.

A 1-0 defeat by Lyon in the first leg of their last-16 clash was supposed to signal the beginning of the end of APOEL’s journey, but they turned the tide around by winning 1-0 in the second leg. A penalty shoot-out victory saw them through to the quarter-finals, where they exited with their heads held high after an 8-2 aggregate defeat by Real Madrid.

7. PSV 2004/05

Managed by Guus Hiddink, the PSV team of 2004/05 contained some recognisable faces: Mark van Bommel, Park Ji-sung, Phillip Cocu and Heurelho Gomes, to name a few. They actually lost two of their star players that summer as Arjen Robben and Mateja Kezman joined Chelsea, but PSV still managed to exceed expectations in the Champions League.

They picked up 10 points in Group E, the same number as Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal and one more than Panathinaikos. PSV then breezed past Monaco in the round of 16 and beat Lyon in the quarter-finals, before narrowly losing to Milan in the last four.

6. Schalke 2010/11

Schalke finished 14th in the Bundesliga in 2010/11, just four points above the relegation play-off spot. It seems they saved their best form for continental competition, as the German side reached the semi-finals of the Champions League against all odds.

The Royal Blues lost to Lyon on matchday one, but four wins in their next five games saw them secure top spot in their group at the expense of the French team, Benfica and Hapoel Tel Aviv. Spearheaded by the experienced striker Raul, Schalke then beat Valencia and the reigning champions Inter, before bowing out to Manchester United in the semis.

5. Monaco 2016/17

Monaco’s academy has a reputation for developing top-class young players, and in 2016/17 a particularly talented crop of starlets helped the club from the principality reach the semi-finals of the Champions League. Kylian Mbappe was the star of the show, but that Monaco side also contained Fabinho, Bernardo Silva and Benjamin Mendy, with the veteran striker Radamel Falcao providing a dose of experience up front.

Monaco finished top of their group, which featured Tottenham Hotspur, Bayer Leverkusen and CSKA Moscow, then edged out Manchester City on away goals after a thrilling 6-6 aggregate draw in the round of 16. Leanardo Jardim’s side were too strong for Borussia Dortmund in the quarters, but Juventus got the better of them in the semi-finals.

4. Villarreal 2005/06

Villarreal reached the semi-finals against all odds in 2021/22 and gave Liverpool a scare in the second leg, but their run to the last four was perhaps even more surprising in 2005/06, their first ever season in the Champions League.

Inspired by the talismanic figure of Juan Roman Riquelme, the legendary Argentine playmaker, Villarreal qualified for the knockout stage by accumulating more points than Benfica, Lille and Manchester United. The Spanish side then squeezed past Rangers and Inter, but Arsenal got the better of them in the semis.

3. Valencia 1999/00

Valencia finished fourth in La Liga in 1998/99 and Claudio Ranieri was replaced as manager by Hector Cuper the following summer. The next campaign was therefore designated as one for transition, but los Che became the Champions League’s most successful underdogs in 1999/00.

Valencia went unbeaten in the first group phase, finishing top ahead of Bayern Munich, Rangers and PSV. In the second group stage (a format that was hastily dropped by UEFA), they advanced alongside Manchester United, before their excellent home form saw them past Lazio and Barcelona in the knockout rounds.

Those victories set up a final against domestic rivals Real Madrid. Valencia were no match for los Blancos on the night, but they were justifiably proud of making it so far.

2. Ajax 2018/19

Ajax are one of the most iconic clubs in Europe, so they are perhaps not a traditional underdog. But given the financial dominance of a fixed number of teams from England, Spain, Italy, Germany and France, their run to the semi-finals of 2018/19 was a fantastic achievement.

Talented youngsters like Matthijs de Ligt, Donny van de Beek and Frenkie de Jong supplemented an experienced core featuring Daley Blind, Dusan Tadic and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Ajax finished second in their group behind Bayern Munich, then stunned Real Madrid and Juventus in the knockout round.

Erik ten Hag’s team were 35 minutes away from reaching the final but threw away a 2-0 aggregate lead against Tottenham.

1. Porto 2003/04

Jose Mourinho’s Porto had demonstrated their credentials by winning the UEFA Cup in 2002/03, but no one anticipated them repeating the feat in the Champions League. Yet Mourinho demonstrated his coaching genius by leading the unfancied Portuguese side all the way to the trophy.

Porto finished in the top two of their group pretty comfortably, although they were second to Real Madrid. The round of 16 brought a 3-2 aggregate victory over Manchester United (and Mourinho’s famous sprint down the Old Trafford touchline), before Porto eliminated Lyon and Deportivo La Coruna in the quarters and semis respectively.

Monaco were not the most daunting opponents in the final, but Mourinho’s men dispatched them in an impressive 3-0 win.

Honourable mentions

Leeds United reached the last four in 2000/01, but a winnable quarter-final tie with Deportivo La Coruna eased their passage – which is why they narrowly missed out on a place in our top eight.

Roma topped a group containing Chelsea and Atletico Madrid in 2017/18, before overcoming Shakhtar Donetsk and Barcelona in the knockouts on their way to the semi-finals.

Dynamo Kyiv also deserve a shout-out for their run to the semi-finals in 1998/99, which featured a memorable victory over Real Madrid in the quarters.

This season

Who will be the underdog in this season’s Champions League? Keep an eye out for Celtic, who have made huge strides under Ange Postecoglou and will be a force to be reckoned with when they play at home. Two other contenders are Napoli and Marseille, clubs with passionate fan bases that will fancy their chances of getting out of their groups. From there, a kind draw and some good fortune could help them go deep.