Champions League 2022/23 – Latest Updates
The Champions League 2022/23 promises to be as entertaining and exciting as ever. Europe’s biggest football competition never disappoints, and it will be fascinating to see which team will triumph this time around.
Can Real Madrid retain the trophy they won under Carlo Ancelotti last term, or might Barcelona usurp their arch-rivals and the rest of the continent? Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea will be vying to bring the prize back to England, while Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain will be flying the flag for Germany and France respectively. Perhaps this will be the season when the Champions League is won by an Italian club again, with Serie A’s last triumph coming courtesy of Inter back in 2010.
The group stage will get under way on September 6 and is set to conclude on November 2 – more than a month earlier than usual due to the staging of the 2022 World Cup in November and December.
In this article we have made predictions on which teams will make it out of the group stage based on their performance in the Champions League over the last five years. After we have picked out our 16 qualifiers, we will turn our attention to the knockout phase and predict which side will triumph in the latest edition of Europe’s biggest competition.
Champions League Qualifying: Success Stories
The preliminary qualifying round took place in June. On July 5 the first qualifying round begins, followed by the second round on July 19, the third round on August 2, and the play-offs on August 16. Different teams will enter at different stages depending on various factors such as their performance last season and the country they come from.
Twenty-six teams have automatically qualified for the group stage of the Champions League, including all of the heavyweights we mentioned earlier. That means there are just six places up for grabs for the 52 teams that will participate in the qualifying rounds.
We have already lost three of those outfits in FCI Levadia, La Fiorita and Inter Club d’Escaldes, all of whom were eliminated in the preliminary round. That means there are 49 sides still standing – in this article we have crunched the numbers to work out which six are most likely to qualify for the group phase and have at least six more Champions League fixtures to look forward to.
First Round
Let us start with some bad news for the vast majority of the 29 clubs that are about to begin their European journeys in the first qualifying round, including sides from Northern Ireland, Kosovo, Albania, Gibraltar and North Macedonia. For most of these teams it is highly unlikely that they will make it through to the tournament proper.
It is only the most recognisable names in this section, such as Malmo, Ludogorets Razgrad and Qarabag, that have a realistic chance of battling their way through the entire process.
Over the last five years, just four teams have advanced from the first qualifying round all the way through to the group stage of the Champions League: Malmo and Sheriff Tiraspol in 2021/22, Ferencvaros in 2020/21, Red Star Belgrade in both 2019/20 and 2018/19.
Second Round
As for the second round entrants, which this year include the likes of Olympiacos, Dynamo Kyiv and Fenerbahce among its automatic entrants, there is a better chance of reaching the final 32.
In the last five years, Young Boys (2021/22), Midtjylland (2020/21), Olympiacos, Dinamo Zagreb (both 2019/20), Ajax (2018/19), and Celtic, APOEL, Maribor and Qarabag (all 2017/18) have achieved the feat of entering in the second round of qualifying and going on to rub shoulders with the likes of Real Madrid, Manchester City and Bayern Munich in the group stage.
On the face of it that might not sound like much, but consider that there have only been 64 automatic entrants to the second round in that time, giving a qualification success rate of 14 per cent – significantly higher than the 3.7 per cent chance for first-round entrants.
Third Round and Play-Offs
Eight teams will start in the third qualifying round this year, including Benfica, Rangers and Red Star Belgrade. Over the last five seasons, 39 sides have begun their Champions League campaign at this stage – and a total of eight have gone on to reach the group phase, giving a success rate of 20.5 per cent.
Finally, two teams – Copenhagen and Trabzonspor – have been given byes all the way to the play-off round, which means they are just one two-legged victory away from qualifying for the Champions League. In the five campaigns since 2017/18, 18 teams have started in the play-offs and 11 have reached the tournament proper, which works out as a 73.3 per cent chance of making it.
Champions League 2022/23 Group Stage
Group A
| Team | Country | Round of 16 Appearances |
| Ajax | Netherlands | 2 |
| Liverpool | England | 5 |
| Napoli | Italy | 1 |
| Rangers | Scotland | 0 |
Based on performance in recent years, Liverpool and Ajax are the favourites to advance from Group A. Napoli could push the Dutch giants close, but Ajax will hope that recent history works in their favour.
Group B
| Team | Country | Round of 16 Appearances |
| Porto | Portugal | 3 |
| Atletico Madrid | Spain | 4 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Germany | 0 |
| Club Brugge | Belgium | 0 |
Atletico Madrid have only missed out on the round of 16 once in the last five years. We expect them to be joined in the first knockout round by Porto, who have progressed from the group phase more often than not in the last five years.
Group C
| Team | Country | Round of 16 Appearances |
| Bayern Munich | Germany | 5 |
| Barcelona | Spain | 4 |
| Inter | Italy | 1 |
| Viktoria Plzen | Czech Republic | 0 |
Bayern Munich have a perfect record of reaching the knockout phase since 2017/18. Barcelona are the favourites to join them, but Inter are improving and will pose a stronger challenge than their recent record suggests.
Group D
| Team | Country | Round of 16 Appearances |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Germany | 0 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | England | 3 |
| Sporting CP | Portugal | 1 |
| Marseille | France | 0 |
Tottenham Hotspur are in pole position to win Group D, which is one of the most open of this season’s edition of the Champions League. Sporting CP should edge out Marseille and Eintracht Frankfurt, but the latter duo will also be quietly confident of advancing.
Group E
| Team | Country | Round of 16 Appearances |
| AC Milan | Italy | 0 |
| Chelsea | England | 4 |
| Red Bull Salzburg | Austria | 1 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | Croatia | 0 |
Chelsea have only missed out on the last 16 of the Champions League in one of the last five campaigns, so they should make it through without too much trouble. Recent history gives Red Bull Salzburg the edge over AC Milan, although most sportsbooks have the Italian outfit as the favourites to advance alongside Chelsea.
Group F
| Team | Country | Round of 16 Appearances |
| Real Madrid | Spain | 5 |
| RB Leipzig | Germany | 2 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Ukraine | 1 |
| Celtic | Scotland | 0 |
Real Madrid, the reigning champions, are experts at navigating the group stage of the Champions League, and this year will be no different. Celtic are on the rise after winning the Scottish Premiership title last term, but RB Leipzig have a better record than the Bhoys and Shakhtar Donetsk since 2017/18.
Group G
| Team | Country | Round of 16 Appearances |
| Manchester City | England | 5 |
| Sevilla | Spain | 2 |
| Borussia Dortmund | Germany | 3 |
| Copenhagen | Denmark | 0 |
Manchester City rarely slip up in the group phase of the Champions League these days, so top spot beckons for Pep Guardiola’s side. Borussia Dortmund should get the better of Sevilla in the race for second.
Group H
| Team | Country | Round of 16 Appearances |
| Paris Saint-Germain | France | 5 |
| Juventus | Italy | 5 |
| Benfica | Portugal | 1 |
| Maccabi Haifa | Israel | 0 |
There are two heavy favourites in Group H: Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus, both of whom have reached the knockout phase five times out of five since 2017/18. Benfica and Maccabi Haifa are huge underdogs in this one.
Round of 16 to Quarter-Finals
| Team | Country | Quarter-Final Appearances |
| Manchester City | England | 5 |
| Bayern Munich | Germany | 4 |
| Liverpool | England | 4 |
| Barcelona | Spain | 3 |
| Real Madrid | Spain | 3 |
| Chelsea | England | 2 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | France | 2 |
| Atletico Madrid | Spain | 2 |
The 16 teams that make it through to the knockout stage will then contest two-legged ties to determine the eight quarter-finalists. Employing the same methodology as above, we have predicted which sides will make it beyond the round of 16.
This is by no means a perfect forecast. Some of the teams in the table above could be drawn to face each other in the round of 16. Others may underperform and not live up to their recent achievements in European competition. Nevertheless, the eight sides shown above are those with the best records of reaching the quarter-finals in the last five seasons.
We will discuss the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool and Bayern Munich later in this article – in this section we will focus on the teams that we expect to drop out of the Champions League at this stage.
Tottenham were the runners-up in 2018/19 but were absent from the competition last time out. In Antonio Conte they have one of the best managers in the European game, and there are not many better players than Harry Kane and Son Heung-min in their respective positions. Nevertheless, they have only reached the quarter-finals once in the last five years, so we expect their journey to end at this point.
Other sides that reached the quarter-finals in just 20 per cent of the period we are covering are Borussia Dortmund, Ajax and RB Leipzig. Dortmund appear to have gone backwards from last season, with their star striker having joined Manchester City in the summer transfer window. Ajax are rebuilding after losing Erik ten Hag to Manchester United, while it would take a huge effort for RB Leipzig to reach the quarters for only the second time in the club’s history.
We predicted Red Bull Salzburg and Sporting CP to reach the round of 16, but neither is likely to go any further since they have not reached the last eight in the previous half-decade.
There were actually five teams that reached the quarter-finals twice, but we have picked Chelsea, Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain to go through ahead of Juventus and Porto.
Dig a little deeper and it is clear that these five sides do not have identical records at all. Juventus, for instance, have never reached a semi-final in the period we are looking at, and none of their quarter-final appearances came in the last three years.
Juventus have gone backwards since the end of Max Allegri’s first spell in charge, and they could struggle to make it into the last eight this term. A fourth-place finish in Serie A last season is further evidence of their decline – remember, it is not that long since the Bianconeri won a ninth Italian championship in a row.
Porto are the other side whose journey we predict will not go beyond the quarters. The Portuguese outfit did not make it beyond the final eight in the last five years, and they only narrowly scraped through their last two successful round of 16 ties, against Juventus in 2020/21 and against Roma in 2018/19.
Quarter-Finals to Semi-Finals
| Team | Country | Semi-Final Appearances |
| Liverpool | England | 3 |
| Real Madrid | Spain | 3 |
| Manchester City | England | 2 |
| Bayern Munich | Germany | 2 |
Now we are really down to the business end of the competition. Over the last five years, 13 different teams have participated in the semi-finals of the Champions League. Villarreal, Lyon and Roma are among them, and none of those teams has even qualified for the group stage this year. Ajax and RB Leipzig have also made it through to the last four since 2017/18.
With three appearances apiece, we are backing Real Madrid and Liverpool to reach the semi-finals once again. Based on their records in the last five years, Bayern Munich and Manchester City look well positioned to join them.
We could have opted for Paris Saint-Germain. The French giants, like Bayern and City, have reached the semi-finals on two occasions since 2017/18. In Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar, they have arguably the most talented front three in football history. Mbappe looks like an astute choice to finish as the Champions League top scorer.
But PSG have continually disappointed in this competition. Granted, they did reach the final in 2019/20 and were not markedly inferior on the night to Bayern Munich, who ran out 1-0 winners. But PSG crashed and burned last season, going out to Real Madrid in the last 16 despite being 2-0 up on aggregate with less than 30 minutes of the tie remaining.
We expect PSG to once again fall short in their ongoing quest to win the club’s first ever European Cup, while Barcelona, Chelsea and Atletico Madrid are the other sides we expect to bow out at the quarter-final stage of the competition.
Final and winner
| Team | Country | Final Appearances |
| Liverpool | England | 3 |
| Real Madrid | Spain | 2 |
Sound familiar? The data over the last few years points towards Liverpool and Real Madrid making it all the way through to the Champions League final, just as they did in the 2021/22 campaign.
In the five seasons we have analysed in this article, these are the only two teams who have reached the showpiece event on more than occasion. Manchester City and Bayern Munich, our other predicted semi-finalists, have only played in one final each.
Madrid are the most successful side in the history of this competition. Their triumph last season was their 14th in total, which means they have double the amount of Champions Leagues than the next-best AC Milan.
If the tournament had been played in a round-robin format, Madrid probably would not have won it in 2021/22. They were outplayed at times in each of their knockout ties, against PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City. Yet their potent blend of quality and experience meant they continually found a way to win, including in the final at the Stade de France.
Liverpool had more possession in that match. They took 23 shots to Madrid’s three, and landed nine on target to their opponents’ one. Yet despite appearing to dominate statistically, Liverpool were unable to avoid defeat. Vinicius Junior grabbed the all-important goal in the 59th minute to send the trophy back to Madrid.
These two sides have been the most consistent in the Champions League over the last five years, with Madrid’s two victories compared to Liverpool’s one arguably giving them the edge. But might the 2021/22 campaign have been this Madrid team’s last hurrah? Luka Modric and Karim Benzema, arguably their two most important players, are now in their mid-30s. Madrid have some talented youngsters in the ranks, but it might take a little while longer for the likes of Rodrygo, Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni to bed in as regular starters.
If these teams were to again meet in the final, just as they did in 2018 and 2022, perhaps Liverpool could make it third time lucky. Jurgen Klopp’s side have vast experience in the Champions League and the addition of Darwin Nunez should give them additional firepower up front. Their style of play might actually be better suited to knockout football than a league format, and if everyone stays fit Liverpool do not have any notable weaknesses.
History shows that a repeat of the previous year’s final is rare, so perhaps at least one of Liverpool or Madrid will not make it to the Ataturk Olympic Stadium on June 10. Manchester City or Paris Saint-Germain might finally make the breakthrough in Europe, while Bayern Munich and Chelsea – both of whom have won the competition in the last five years – could get their hands on the trophy once more.
One thing is for sure: the 2022/23 Champions League will be box-office viewing, just as it is every year.
Potential Underdogs
Eintracht Frankfurt could be one of the surprise packages in this season’s Champions League. They won the Europa League last term and that experience of going all the way in a continental competition will serve them well this year. The Champions League is undoubtedly a step up, but the group stage draw has been kind to Frankfurt, who could be dark horses to reach the quarter-finals.
Keep an eye on Celtic, a club that won the European Cup way back in 1967. The Bhoys play fantastic football under Ange Postecoglou, and no visiting team will relish playing at the cauldron that is Celtic Park.
Our methodology of looking at the last five years spells bad news for Napoli, but there is genuine belief among Luciano Spalletti’s squad that they can make it through to the last 16. It has been a summer of change in Naples, but Spalletti is an astute coach and they could pip Ajax to second spot in Group A.
Finally, do not write off Portuguese giants Benfica or Porto. Both will fancy their chances of getting out of the group, and from there they would be just one aggregate victory away from the quarter-finals.
