Autumn International Rugby Betting Tips Week 4

This weekend’s Autumn Internationals sees four clashes between the best of the south against the best of the north, in the most anticipated round of the series. England under Eddie Jones have rolled onto 11 consecutive wins following their comprehensive 58-15 win over Fiji last week, however this week will be a slightly different proposition as they take on the talented Pumas. Cardiff dishes out an interesting battle when Wales take on a wounded Springboks, both sides short on confidence, while Ireland look to halt Australia’s Grand Slam surge in Dublin. In the final match of week four the All Blacks close off their season when they take on an unpredictable French team that have dished out a few shock wins over the New Zealanders down the years.

Betsafe pack down with leading rugby website Planet Rugby and former Welsh International with this comprehensive betting preview to the action. Get ahead and score the winning trey with Betsafe for week four of the Autumn Internationals.

England v Argentina

A first meeting in three years between the two sides, Eddie Jones’ imperious England side will host a dangerous Argentina outfit still smarting from two narrow defeats.

Jones’ England continued their unblemished record under the Australian with a resounding 58-15 victory over Fiji at the weekend, displaying an impressive attacking verve, with recalled winger Semesa Rokoduguni scoring two tries in a man of the match performance.

“It was good fish and chips,” Jones told BBC Sport after the win. “It doesn’t mean fish and chips is basic. I thought we played some sparkling rugby, really good stuff. The ball movement, crispness of passing was fantastic.”

However, Jones remains a tough coach to please, and Rokoduguni will miss out against Argentina with Jonny May coming back into the side. The blow of losing Joe Launchbury to suspension has been eased by the potential return of George Kruis at lock.

For all their improvement in recent years, meanwhile, Argentina visit Twickenham on a run of only one win in their previous seven Tests. Los Pumas pushed Wales all the way two weeks ago, losing 24-20 after being reduced to 14 men temporarily, before having a draw in Scotland snatched out of their hands by Greig Laidlaw’s 80th-minute penalty.

One boost for Argentina is the availability of classy fly-half Nicolas Sanchez, who was cited for striking but was ultimately found not guilty on Tuesday however the Pumas selection have not included the playmaker in the match-day squad opting for Juan Martín Hernández instead.

Argentina have won only once at Twickenham – a 25-18 success in 2006 which went a long way to sealing the fate of England head coach Andy Robinson – and are 7/1 off scratch with Betsafe, or can be backed at 19/20 with a 16.5-point start on the handicap. England are 5/6 to win on the handicap.

England: 15 Mike Brown, 14 Jonny May, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Owen Farrell, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 George Ford, 9 Ben Youngs, 8 Billy Vunipola, 7 Tom Wood, 6 Chris Robshaw, 5 George Kruis, 4 Courtney Lawes, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Mako Vunipola

Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 Charlie Ewels, 20 Teimana Harrison,, 21 Danny Care, 22 Ben Te’o, 23 Henry Slade

Argentina: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Matías Orlando, 13 Matías Moroni, 12 Santiago González Iglesias, 11 Santiago Cordero, 10 Juan Martín Hernández, 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Javier Ortega Desio, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Matías Alemanno, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy (c), 1 Lucas Noguera

Replacements: 16 Julián Montoya, 17 Santiago García Botta, 18 Enrique Pieretto, 19 Facundo Isa, 20 Tomas Lezana, 21 Martin Landajo, 22 Jerónimo De la Fuente, 23 Juan Pablo Estelles

Wales v South Africa

A clash between two sides whose fans are panicking about recent performances, albeit South Africa supporters will be envying their Wales counterparts.

With Warren Gatland on a sabbatical to focus on the British and Irish Lions, Wales have failed to click under the guidance of Rob Howley, following up their thrashing at the hands of Australia with a nervy victory over Argentina and even nervier win over Japan.

Despite leading by 11 points at one point in the second half, Wales required Sam Davies’ 80th-minute drop-goal to secure a 33-30 success. “The coaches and players should be ashamed because this was another abysmal and unacceptable performance,” was the verdict of the former Wales prop Graham Price. Few punches were pulled elsewhere.

The only positive Wales can take into Saturday’s clash is the fact that however bad they may have been recently, South Africa have been much, much worse. 

The Springboks have been in a permanent state of crisis in the past 12 months, and appeared to reach their nadir last weekend by suffering their first ever defeat to Italy.

Following the seventh loss in 11 Tests this year, SA Rugby revealed they will undertake a full review after their trip to Cardiff. Head coach Allister Coetzee’s position appears untenable and, while the problems run far deeper, the 53-year-old needs a victory against Wales to have any chance of saving his job.

Despite a 12-6 victory two years ago, Wales’ record against the Springboks is wretched, with their only other win coming in 1999. However, on Saturday they start as 1/2 favourites with Betsafe, with South Africa at 9/5. With the visitors in such turmoil, Wales should be good enough to overturn the -4.5 point deficit on the handicap at 4/5, although it is likely to be tight.

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Gethin Jenkins

Replacements: 16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Samson Lee, 19 Cory Hill, 20 Taulupe Faletau, 21 Lloyd Williams, 22 Sam Davies, 23 Jamie Roberts

South Africa: 15 Johan Goosen‚ 14 Ruan Combrinck‚ 13 Francois Venter‚ 12 Rohan Janse van Rensburg‚ 11 Jamba Ulengo‚ 10 Elton Jantjies‚ 9 Faf de Klerk‚ 8 Warren Whiteley‚ 7 Uzair Cassiem‚ 6 Nizaam Carr‚ 5 Lood de Jager‚ 4 Pieter-Steph du Toit‚ 3 Lourens Adriaanse‚ 2 Adriaan Strauss (c)‚ 1 Tendai Mtawarira

Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx‚ 17 Steven Kitshoff‚ 18 Trevor Nyakane‚ 19 Franco Mostert‚ 20 Jean-Luc du Preez‚ 21 Piet van Zyl‚ 22 Pat Lambie‚ 23 Lionel Mapoe

Ireland v Australia

Australia travel to Ireland in the first of two difficult Tests to end their Autumn tour, with England at Twickenham to follow.

Ireland may have been beaten by New Zealand, but still earned plenty of plaudits, especially considering they lost key trio CJ Stander, Johnny Sexton and Robbie Henshaw to injury in the first half. Should they manage to beat Australia, then this could be Ireland’s greatest ever Autumn.

The injuries are a major concern, with Sexton and Henshaw ruled out, among concerns over Stander, Rob Kearney, Tadhg Furlong, and Simon Zebo. Former Wales centre Tom Shanklin, though, does not expect the casualties to be a problem.

“Good sides have a framework that players can fit into,” he told Planet Rugby. “And Ireland, losing three key men in CJ Stander, Johnny Sexton and Robbie Henshaw, showed they have this structure when other players such as the outstanding Garry Ringrose came on and immediately fitted into the structure and delivered.”

Michael Cheika’s Australia come into the game following a tough battle against France but, unlike Ireland, have the luxury of reintroducing players, with Dane Haylett-Petty, Israel Folau, Michael Hooper, Reece Hodge and Sekope Kepu all expected to return after being rested against Les Bleus

Recent history does not suggest either side have the upper hand going into the encounter. In the past seven meetings, Ireland have won three, Australia have won three, and there has been one draw. Only twice in those matches has there been more than nine points between the two teams.

The odds reflect just how difficult the game is to call, with Ireland marginal favourites at 5/6 and Australia available at 11/10. With Ireland’s potentially lengthy injury list, Australia’s 1.5-point start on the handicap at 11/13.

Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Jared Payne, 12 Garry Ringrose, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 CJ Stander, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best, 1 Jack McGrath

Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Ultan Dillane, 20 Josh van der Flier, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Joey Carbery, 23 Simon Zebo

Australia: 15 Israel Folau 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Reece Hodge, 11 Henry Speight, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 David Pocock, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dean Mumm, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore(c), 1 Scott Sio

Replacements: 16 Tolu Latu, 17 James Slipper, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Kane Douglas, 20 Lopeti Timani, 21 Sean McMahon, 22 Nick Phipps, 23 Quade Cooper, 24 Sefanaia Naivalu

France v New Zealand

France draw the short straw of facing New Zealand this week, with the All Blacks having now firmly put their shock defeat to Ireland behind them.

Les Bleus showed plenty of signs of encouragement in their 25-23 defeat to Australia, continuing to display the return of the stereotypical flair they were once so renowned for, as well as an element of pragmatism which is certainly less associated with the side.

Wesley Fofana is starting to find some of his best form, which means France boast one of the best centres in Europe in their midfield, while Sevens star Virimi Vakatawa provides an added x-factor on the wing, and took his tally to five tries in seven Tests by dotting down against Australia.

New Zealand took their revenge on Ireland at the Aviva Stadium with a bruising 21-9 victory. The All Blacks may be the masters of scintillating rugby with the ball in hand, but this win was built on a remarkable defensive intensity. Twice the Kiwis were temporarily reduced to 14 men, but Ireland could still not find a way over the tryline.

They will, however, be without full-back Ben Smith and flanker Sam Cane through injury, while centre Malakai Fekitoa has been suspended and second-row Patrick Tuipulotu has returned home due to personal reasons.

France used to be considered somewhat of a bogey side for New Zealand, but are on a nine-match losing streak dating back to 2009 against the All Blacks, with the last meeting resulting in a 62-13 annihilation in the quarter-final of the World Cup.

Unsurprisingly, France start as big underdogs at 8/1 with Betsafe. Even with a -19.5 point deficit on the handicap at 4/5, it takes a brave man to bet against New Zealand, who will be looking to end 2016 on a high.

France: 15 Brice Dulin, 14 Noa Nakaitaci, 13 Rémi Lamerat, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Camille Lopez, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Kevin Gourdon, 6 Charles Ollivon, 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Sébastian Vahaamahina, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Xavier Chiocci

Replacements: 16 Camille Chat, 17 Cyril Baille, 18 Rabah Slimani, 19 Julien Le Devedec, 20 Damien Chouly, 21 Baptiste Serin, 22 Jean-Marc Doussain, 23 Gaël Fickou

New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Joe Moody

Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Charlie Faumuina, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Ardie Savea, 21 Aaron Smith, 22 Aaron Cruden, 23 Rieko Ioane

About Rob Conlon

Rob Conlon is a contributor for PlanetRugby, widely regarded as one of the biggest rugby websites in the world which offers news, previews, live scores and analysis.