UFC 209 Betting Tips
UFC 209 features a big championship doubleheader, with a rematch between challenger Stephen Thompson and champ Tyron Woodley (16-3-1) for welterweight belt topping the card. The co-main is striker Tony Ferguson and undefeated Russian Khabib Nurmagomedov for the interim lightweight title.
With competitive fights and lots of heavy hitters, this is a good one to look for betting action. The card takes place this Saturday at Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena. Let’s take a closer look at each bout.
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Paul Craig (9-0-0) VS Tyson Pedro (5-0-0)
Two undefeated fighters are matched, so one 0 must go! Both Craig and Pedro are submission specialists, so expect this fight to go to the ground. Craig might be the future in European MMA, finishing all 9 of his fights so far. Look for the Scot to take out the Australian light heavyweight and continue his climb to the top.
Iuri Alcantara (34-7-0) VS Luke Sanders (11-0-0)
Alcantara is a long-time MMA veteran, turning pro back in 2003. At 36-years old, he is fighting better than ever and finished Brad Pickett last October. Sanders thinks he will have the upper hand when he steps into the Octagon, but I like Iuri to end the undefeated run of the American.
Mirsad Bektic (11-0-0) VS Darren Elkins (21-5-0
The undefeated Bektic resembles the skills of all time great Georges St-Pierre. The well rounded fighter can be a champion, if injuries don’t stop him outside the cage. Elkins is a stern test for any fighter, but he should end up as a punching bag for 15 minutes in this one.
Marcin Tybura (14-2-0) VS Luis Henrique (10-2-0)
I like the Henrique in this matchup of big men. The Brazilian is a crafty submission specialists and most recently took out Danish black belt Christian Colombo. Tybura landed one of the best KO’s in 2015 with a headkick putting out Viktor Pesta in highlight fashion, so he has some chance of landing a big blow, but don’t count on it.
UFC Meets boxing
Mark Hunt (12-10-1) VS Alistair Overeem (41-15-0)
Two of the most loved heavyweights of all time square off in the opening bout of the main card. There are over 50 wins between the two of these legends, but only one can now take a punch. “The Super Samoan” is likely to land a right hand somewhere in the fight that will quickly turn off the lights on The Reem. Hunt is a slight underdog, so might be a good opportunity here.
David Teymur (5-1-0) VS Lando Vannata (9-1-0)
The biggest underdog of the main card is Sweden based Teymur. The striker will face the new sensation in Lando Vannata that won KO of the Year award with his spinning heel kick over veteran John Makdessi. With such long odds, Teymur punching power may be the biggest surprise on the main card. With long odds, a possible play on the Swede here.
Rashad Evans (19-5-1) VS Daniel Kelly (12-1-0)
If the UFC wanted to get Rashad Evans back on track, they picked a good matchup for him to do it with. 39-year old Kelly is slow and plodding. Although he has won three in a row, if we see anything close to the old champion Evans, he should be able to use his wrestling and put the Australian judoka on his back and win at least two of the three scheduled rounds. I like Sugar here for a sweet win.
Tony Ferguson (22-3-0) VS Khabib Nurmagomedov (24-0-0)– for interim lightweight title
Nobody has been able to stop Nurmagomedov’s wrestling in the cage. In 24 bouts, every fighter has found themselves on their back unable to defend the aggressive grappling of the Russian fighter. Ferguson is a good, all-around fighter and also has wrestling as his fighting base. The 33-year old American is looking for a big name to add to his hit list of nine consecutive wins in the Octagon.
This is one of the most anticipated matches of the year. The ongoing injuries of favorite Nurmagomedov combined with El Cucuy’s impressive win over former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos over 25 minutes heightens the intrigue of this interim title matchup.
Ferguson is the underdog and seems to be the right line as nobody has been able to stop The Eagle. However, Ferguson is a lengthy striker and cardio machine that can fight off his back. I like the underdog hear to turn the tables on Nurmagomedov and mix punches and take-down defense to capture the strap.
Tyron Woodley (16-3-1) versus Stephen Thompson (13-1-1)– for welterweight title
This is a rematch from their 25 minute UFC 205 back-and-forth brawl that was a majority draw. Woodley showed that he is the more powerful striker that can get the fight to the ground, while Thompson displayed his ability to use his karate stance to land kicks from a distance.
While the current champion Woodley has a wrestling background, it is his big right hand that has fight-ending power. The first round of their last bout showed that Thompson has to be careful to not let himself get taken down. The All American wrestler has the ability to use ground and pound to control and damage at will. It was a battered and bloody Thompson after their first five minutes in the cage.
For some reason, Woodley decided to make much of the fight a kick-boxing match, which worked against him. Even with the poor game plan, you can see how the speed and power of Woodley can turn the tables quickly. In round 4, Thompson was nearly stopped once Tyron turned it on.
The odds are close on this bout, but if both fighters work to their potential in Las Vegas, I see Woodley having the upperhand. The path to victory for Woodley can come with just one punch, and he has 25 minutes to make it happen. I think we will see the champ keep the strap.
About Ryan O’Leary
Ryan O’Leary is the founder of MMAViking.com, the premier source for daily mixed martial arts news in the Nordics. Established in 2008, the UFC credentialed media source has covered over 200 events cageside.
